Paytm's stock slipped 4.4% to ₹1,736 on Tuesday, marking its first decline since the MDR announcement last week.
The National Payments Council’s 0.4% UPI merchant discount rate (MDR) on person‑to‑merchant transactions above ₹2,000 is expected to generate a ₹20,600 crore revenue pool for the industry, according to the council’s notification.
Goldman Sachs’ top‑down and bottom‑up models project a ₹1,400 crore incremental EBITDA for Paytm in FY 2028, a 40‑70% upside over current estimates, but the firm cautions that competitive pressure could temper the translation.
Despite the upside, analysts remain cautiously bullish; 18 of 24 coverages are buy, 6 hold, and no sell ratings. The consensus price target stands at ₹1,730, implying a 2.6% downside from the current level.
Paytm’s management has not yet released guidance for FY 2028, but the company is expected to report in Q3 2024. Investors will watch the FY 24 earnings for a clear view of MDR impact.