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India’s October Weather Forecast: Below‑Normal Rainfall, El Nino Expected to Persist
Published: October 1, 2026
India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned that October will see below‑normal rainfall across most of the country, with only 85% of the long‑period average expected. The agency says El Nino conditions will continue through March 2027, potentially affecting the April‑June monsoon.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned on Thursday that October will bring below‑normal rainfall across much of the country, with national totals projected at less than 85% of the long‑term average.
The forecast follows a 13% deficit in the June‑September monsoon, when India received 759.4 mm of rain compared with the 868.6 mm normal, making 2026 one of the weakest monsoons in recent decades.
El Nino conditions, which began in June, are now strengthening and are projected to persist until March 2027, IMD officials said, adding uncertainty to the April‑June monsoon that follows the post‑monsoon period.
While most of the country will see drier conditions, some regions—Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu & Kashmir—could receive normal or above‑normal rainfall between October and December, according to the department.
The northeast monsoon is expected to arrive over southern India between 15 and 21 October, bringing normal rainfall to Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and south interior Karnataka.
Farmers in Punjab, where monsoon deficits have already led to crop stress, are watching the forecast closely as they plan irrigation for the upcoming sowing season.
The IMD will release a revised outlook on 15 October, which will guide state agricultural ministries and farmers’ cooperatives in adjusting water management plans.