Oil prices are the hottest catalyst on the desk today – analysts say a sustained retreat to $85–$90 per barrel could ease inflationary pressure and lift corporate earnings. Axis Securities has flagged this as a key driver that could reverse the current negative sentiment.
CPI inflation edged to 5.54% in September, while the RBI’s forward‑looking forecast for FY27 sits at 5.2%. The gap signals that inflation may be easing, but the market remains wary of energy and food price spikes.
Foreign portfolio investors dumped ₹52,353 crore in October, the largest outflow since early 2024. A muted oil market and a steadier rupee could calm these exit flows and support large‑cap financials and IT names.
Looking ahead, the RBI’s policy commentary will be crucial. If the Reserve Bank signals a pause or an easing, sentiment could swing further positive. Meanwhile, the ongoing India‑US trade talks and the Union Budget are set to add layers of clarity that could keep the rally alive.