JPMorgan: West Asia Crude Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Levels Despite War

The data is stark. JPMorgan analysts, led by Natasha Kaneva, say West Asia crude exports have surged back to 17.5 million barrels a day (mb/d). That’s 98% of where they were before the conflict erupted. It’s a number that has traders scratching their heads, given the ongoing violence in the region. The firm’s Sept. 29 note calls it a “remarkable recovery for a region still at war.”

But don’t get comfortable. The recovery is lopsided. While crude is flowing, refined products like diesel and gasoline are stuck at 3 million b/d. That’s just 58% of pre-war volumes. The overall regional flow sits at 89% of 2025 levels, measured over a 10-day average. The gap between crude and products tells you the real story: the infrastructure is working, but the market is still nervous.

The Strait of Hormuz is the choke point here. Flows through the waterway have hit nearly 13 mb/d, matching late-June highs. Saudi Arabia is driving much of this, having restored about half the capacity on its East-West pipeline after earlier damage. The pipeline feeds Red Sea ports, offering a critical bypass. Yet, as Kaneva’s team notes, higher crossing numbers don’t mean safer waters. They reflect an industry adapting to sustained risk, not a peace treaty.

The US-Iran conflict enters its eighth month with no clear end in sight. Tehran continues to assert control over the waterway, a claim Washington rejects. The US has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports while assisting transits for other nations. This geopolitical friction keeps a premium on shipping insurance and freight rates. For traders, the signal is clear: volume is back, but volatility isn’t. Watch the refined product gap. If that 58% figure doesn’t climb, the “recovery” is just a mirage.