PB Fintech’s stock slumped to ₹1,164.8 on Friday, a 4% dip after a Thursday collapse of 36% on the day IRDAI unveiled draft distribution norms. Bernstein still rates the stock ‘outperform’ with a ₹2,310 target, translating to a 91% upside from Friday’s close.
The crux of Bernstein’s bullish case is a 40% reduction in insurance take rates that the draft is expected to impose. That knock‑on effect could trim FY2028 consolidated revenue by 36%, a hit that the brokerage says will be offset only partially by the parent’s cross‑selling via Paisabazaar.
Management hinted that higher call‑center hiring, variable payouts and performance‑marketing spend could be rationalised in FY2028. The firm sees room to trim growth‑linked costs, but that will come at the cost of a lower customer pricing strategy and a temporary drag on working capital as term‑plan volumes shift to trail‑based structures.
Profit forecasts are revised sharply: FY2028 profit after tax is projected at ₹1,100 crore, down from the FY2027 estimate of ₹1,250 crore and a 34% cut from the earlier scenario. By FY2030, the model expects a rebound to ₹2,000 crore, still below the prior estimate of ₹3,200 crore.
The stock sits under the umbrella of 25 analysts, 16 of whom hold a buy rating, five hold, and four sell. Investors now weigh the upside of a near‑tripling target against the backdrop of a deep take‑rate cut and a steep revenue headwind. The next major driver will be the company’s FY2028 earnings report, slated for October, which will decide if the 91% upside narrative holds water.