BJP Leads Uttarakhand Race at 39.2% as Sitting Legislators Face Anti-Incumbency Wave

DEHRADUN — The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party holds a slender lead in Uttarakhand ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections, even as local lawmakers confront severe voter hostility on the ground.

The telephone survey of 3,127 respondents across the hill state projected a 39.2 per cent vote share for the BJP against 35.6 per cent for the opposition Congress party. That leaves a razor-thin 3.6 percentage point gap—sitting directly within the poll's stated margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The contest remains wide open.

The regional Uttarakhand Kranti Dal captured 8.7 per cent of projected voter support, matching the exact proportion of voters who remain undecided. Smaller regional formations and independent candidates took 4.1 per cent, while the Bahujan Samaj Party registered 2 per cent and the Aam Aadmi Party trailed at 1.7 per cent.

Anti-Incumbency Hits Sitting Lawmakers

Voters drew a sharp, punishing line between the state administration and the politicians representing their individual constituencies.

While 39.8 per cent of respondents expressed satisfaction with the state government against 33.3 per cent who were dissatisfied—yielding a positive net score of 6.5 percentage points—their tolerance evaporated at the constituency level. Only 30.4 per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with their sitting legislators. Conversely, 45.5 per cent registered outright dissatisfaction. That leaves sitting MLAs underwater with a grim negative net satisfaction score of 15.1 percentage points.

Geography split the numbers further. The state government secured a 49 per cent approval rating in urban pockets, but that support dropped to 37 per cent among rural voters.

Chief Ministerial Standings and Power Preferences

Pushkar Singh Dhami retained commanding authority over his party colleagues and opposition challengers as the preferred chief ministerial face.

Thirty-two point three per cent of respondents backed Dhami for another term. Senior Congress leader Harish Rawat took second spot with 20 per cent, followed by fellow Congress leader Ganesh Godiyal at 13.2 per cent. Within the BJP stable, Anil Baluni gathered 12.4 per cent support, while former chief minister Trivendra Singh Rawat secured 8.8 per cent. UKD leader Kukreti registered 1.4 per cent, with 11.8 per cent naming other figures or remaining undecided.

Public perception regarding the eventual victor mirrored this alignment. Forty-one point six per cent of respondents predicted a BJP victory in 2027, compared with 37.1 per cent who forecast a Congress win, 6 per cent who backed the UKD, and 12.3 per cent who withheld judgment.

Jobs Crisis and Voter Motivations

Economic anxieties dominated the state's civic consciousness, led by an acute shortage of livelihood opportunities.

Unemployment ranked as the single biggest issue facing Uttarakhand, cited by 26.1 per cent of all respondents. Among young voters aged 18 to 24, that figure jumped to 39 per cent. Price rise followed at 18.6 per cent, while public health and education captured 12.8 per cent. Law and order polled at 7.2 per cent, and 4.2 per cent cited the Ankita Bhandari case as their primary concern.

When asked what dictates their ballot, 33.7 per cent pointed to party ideology. Candidate image swayed 20.4 per cent, regional development drove 14.2 per cent, and just 2.4 per cent said their vote hinged primarily on state government performance.

A critical third of the electorate remains uncommitted. While 57.5 per cent of respondents reported having made up their minds, 21.4 per cent admitted they held a soft preference but had not locked in their choice, and 11 per cent stayed completely undecided. On allegations of vote theft pushed by opposition groups and the Cockroach Janata Party, 49.1 per cent dismissed the issue as irrelevant to the election outcome, though 34.3 per cent felt it would leave an imprint and 16.6 per cent remained unsure.

Demographic divisions ran deep along social lines. The BJP held firm ground among General category voters, while the Congress built commanding margins among Muslim respondents and carved out an edge among Scheduled Caste communities. The UKD registered its sharpest traction among younger demographics.