Bhandari says India’s GDP will decelerate to 7.2% from 7.8% last quarter, while real exports climb 12% YoY, nudging the economy toward export‑led growth.
Consumer inflation is projected to stay above the RBI’s upper tolerance band, hovering around 6.3% in October and December, which sets the stage for 25‑basis‑point rate hikes, she noted.
HSBC’s commodities desk raised its 2027 Brent crude outlook to $85 per barrel, and a stronger dollar coupled with rising U.S. Treasury yields could tighten global financial conditions across emerging markets, the strategist added.
The India‑UK free‑trade agreement has already lifted exports to the UK by 12% month‑on‑month; a pending EU pact could grant Indian exporters a 35‑40% price advantage once tariffs are cut, Bhandari said, noting the rupee has depreciated roughly 25% against the euro over the past 18 months.
Bhandari anticipates the EU deal materialising by mid‑2027, further boosting exports, but cautions that higher oil prices and tighter financing could offset gains, keeping the RBI in a cautious stance.