Celeste Saulo said the El Nino storm, projected to linger until February 2027, has already scorched Maharashtra's sugarcane fields, hinting at a sharp rise in domestic sugar costs.
Maharashtra supplies about a quarter of India's sugarcane output. The WMO forecasts a 100% likelihood that the current El Nino will persist, possibly the strongest since 1950.
Drought‑stranded mills will struggle to process the reduced cane crop, lowering sugar recovery rates and straining the supply chain.
Retail prices climbed from Rs 46.49 per kg on 8 Oct 2025 to Rs 55.21 per kg on 8 Oct 2026 — an 18.8% jump, according to the Department of Consumer Affairs.
The sector supports roughly 50 million farmers and 500,000 jobs; a weaker crop could ripple through rural incomes and the ethanol blending programme.
If the El Nino intensifies, the 2026‑27 season could see a persistent shortage, cementing the price surge into a prolonged crisis.