Eternal’s latest guidance pushes the quarterly store growth rate to 50% year‑on‑year, a sharp uptick from the 30% pace seen in the prior period.
The brokerage’s Jignanshu Gor, Director and Senior Research Analyst at Bernstein, highlighted that this acceleration is designed to sustain higher growth for longer, even if profitability is delayed.
Bernstein retains a $1bn EBITDA estimate for the Blinkit business in 2030, underpinned by a projected footprint of 500 cities. However, the estimate is tempered by the risk that metro‑level margins may not replicate in smaller towns where purchase frequency and product mix differ.
Gor cautioned that the novelty of instant commerce erodes as consumer habits settle; lower‑frequency purchases in tier‑2 and tier‑3 cities could dilute the sticky customer base seen in metros. He added that this uncertainty introduces volatility into margin projections.
Eternal is also pushing an AI narrative, positioning itself ahead of global peers. Yet, the market remains skeptical about a sum‑of‑the‑parts valuation until concrete AI roadmaps and competitive advantages are clarified.
The stock has edged up 2.5% to ₹314.95 after the guidance release, reflecting optimism around expansion plans. Analysts, however, caution that the 49% drop over the past year signals a broader market wariness toward quick‑commerce bets.
Looking ahead, Eternal is slated to report Q3 earnings next month. The company’s board will also review capital allocation plans, especially in light of the higher store expansion costs and the need to preserve cash flow for AI investments.