The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has confirmed that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are rising rapidly, pointing to a likely return of El Nino conditions as early as May to July 2026. The WMO's chief of climate prediction warned that climate models are now strongly aligned, with high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months ahead.

According to a Netweather report, leading climate models from both ECMWF and NOAA currently indicate an 80 per cent chance of a strong El Nino event, with a 20 to 25 per cent chance of it crossing into full super El Nino territory by late 2026.

A super El Nino is defined as one where water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above average. The consequences for global weather could be far-reaching, with potential massive flooding, severe droughts, and significantly altered storm tracks that can affect the entire planet.

Authorities are urging governments and climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, water management, and public health to begin preparing now. The immediate outlook is for climate scientists to continue monitoring the situation, with the WMO set to release further updates in the coming months.