On Nov. 3, 2026, Texas voters will decide whether Democrat James Talarico can unseat Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. The race is the most expensive in the country and could tip the balance in a Senate where Republicans hold a 53‑47 advantage.
The current Senate tally leaves Republicans with a 53‑47 edge. Democrats must net four seats to break that margin or rely on Vice‑President Mike Johnson’s tie‑breaking vote if the chamber splits 50‑50.
Paxton’s record is riddled with lawsuits and scandal, yet he still commands a loyal conservative base and a fundraising machine that has outpaced Talarico’s progressive platform. Polls from two major firms sit within 300 votes in a state that has trended blue in recent presidential contests.
North Carolina’s Roy Cooper faces former Senator Thom Tillis’s successor, while Ohio’s former Senator Sherrod Brown attempts a comeback against Jon Husted. In Maine, Susan Collins battles former Senate leader Troy Jackson; in Alaska, Mary Peltola takes on Daniel Sullivan.
Campaign finance reports show the Texas race has attracted $25 million from outside groups, dwarfing the $7 million raised by Talarico. Redistricting has tightened margins in several Mid‑Atlantic states, sharpening the focus on each of the eight key contests.
Voters will cast ballots on Election Day, and the outcomes will be announced in the following days. The party that secures the required seats will control committee chairmanships and set the legislative agenda for the next two years.