Paytm’s Q4 earnings may surge 50% as a ₹18,000 crore UPI MDR pool materialises. NEWPAR The 40‑basis‑point MDR, higher than the 25‑35 bps range analysts expected, grants payment intermediaries a heftier slice of the transaction revenue, said Nitin Aggarwal, Head of Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance, Institutional Equities at Motilal Oswal. NEWPAR The ₹17‑18 k crore pool will be split: issuer banks 40%, third‑party providers 15‑30%. Paytm’s share of eligible transactions could translate into a 30‑50% EBITA lift, Aggarwal added. NEWPAR Pine Labs may see a double‑digit EBITA boost, PhonePe a modest rise, while Google Pay’s exposure remains limited, according to the firm’s analysis. NEWPAR Paytm is slated to release its Q4 figures on July 15; analysts have raised price targets by 12% on the back of the MDR windfall, signalling bullish sentiment.