National Stock Exchange shares touched a record ₹1,953.95 in Mumbai trade on Friday, extending a four-day winning streak that pushed the exchange's market capitalisation past $50 billion.
Buyers shrugged off a sluggish September quarter. Net profit dropped 17% quarter-on-quarter to ₹2,578 crore as trading activity cooled across equity derivatives. Operating deleverage pinched profitability, driving a 13% sequential drop in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA), while EBITDA margins contracted 215 basis points. Total transaction activity slid 16% sequentially, driven down by a 25% tumble in average daily traded volume (ADTV) for equity options premiums, alongside a 3-basis-point drop in blended yields. Treasury income weakened simultaneously, dropping 30% to ₹479 crore from ₹682 crore in the June quarter.
Strong issuance fees softened the blow. Robust initial public offering activity cushioned top-line transaction losses, while commodity derivatives carved out unexpected growth. Commodity futures average daily turnover climbed 38% sequentially to ₹138 crore, and options premium turnover surged 116% to ₹297 crore, propelled by speculative flows into crude oil contracts. The exchange ceded ground in cash equities, where its market share slipped 1 percentage point to 92%.
| Metric | Q2 FY Performance | Sequential Change (QoQ) |
|---|---|---|
| Net Profit | ₹2,578 crore | -17% |
| Treasury Income | ₹479 crore | -30% |
| EBITDA Margin | Contracted | -215 bps |
| Overall Transaction Activity | Aggregate Volume | -16% |
| Equity Options Premium ADTV | Premium Traded | -25% |
| Commodity Options Premium Turnover | ₹297 crore | +116% |
| Cash Market Share | 92% | -100 bps |
Brokerages maintained an aggressive stance on the exchange's core distribution muscle. Kotak Institutional Equities reaffirmed its 'Buy' rating with a price target of ₹2,200, pointing to the bourse's control over primary domestic liquidity pools and negligible capital reinvestment requirements. The brokerage expects earnings to expand at a mid-teens pace, though it warned that prospective regulatory interventions in equity derivatives and technology security risks remain ongoing threats to operational momentum.
JPMorgan assigned an 'Overweight' rating with a target of ₹2,130, pricing the stock at 36.8 times estimated FY28 earnings. Macquarie set an 'Outperform' stance at ₹1,975, noting that equity cash volumes beat internal benchmarks despite derivatives revenue falling short. Macquarie attributed much of the volume drag to market friction under the Closing Auction Session (CAS) framework—which saw equity cash ADTV drop 13% and futures volumes sink 19%.
Volume trajectories now hinge on regulatory mechanics. With the Securities and Exchange Board of India clearing revisions to the CAS framework last month, institutional desks expect transaction momentum to stage a calculated recovery heading into Q3FY27.