Emkay Global’s Avinash Singh, Deputy Head of Institutional Equities, now covers the National Stock Exchange, projecting its earnings to climb at a compounded annual growth rate of more than 15% from FY27 through FY29. The analyst cites India’s expanding middle class, a surge in IPOs, and a maturing economy as the main drivers behind this decadal growth story.
The forecast sits above the median analyst expectation of 13% CAGR for the same period, a figure Emkay had set earlier for NSE’s 2027‑2029 earnings. Singh notes that the current 4‑5% post‑listing gain on NSE’s debut is a short‑term market reaction; sustained performance will hinge on the exchange’s ability to generate revenue streams rather than listing enthusiasm alone.
When compared to its peer, BSE, NSE’s revenue growth of 24.3% over the last five years lags behind BSE’s 52% CAGR, while BSE’s profit growth of 77% outpaces NSE’s 23.4%. BSE’s surge has been driven largely by a strategic push into derivatives, especially index options, according to Singh. He cautions that NSE’s growth trajectory will depend on regulatory changes and its capacity to capture a larger share of these high‑margin segments.
Regulatory swings, market volatility, and new technology adoption are expected to cap earnings in the near term, Singh warned. Nevertheless, he remains optimistic that NSE can sustain a 15%+ CAGR once the exchange consolidates its position against emerging competition. Investors should watch for NSE’s FY27 guidance, which is likely to include a revised revenue target and a clearer picture of fee‑based income streams.
In the coming months, market participants will focus on NSE’s quarterly filings and any regulatory announcements that could reshape the trading architecture. A positive earnings beat in FY27 could trigger a further rally in index futures, while any delay in fee‑evolution plans may temper the rally.