Shares of Vodafone Idea ticked 2% higher to ₹12.18 after Jefferies unveiled a revised price target of ₹16, a 20% cut from the earlier ₹20 figure, which translates to a 34% upside from the current level.
Jefferies maps out three scenarios. The bull case pushes the stock to ₹29, a 143% gain, while the bear case sees it falling to ₹9. The base case sits at ₹16, implying a modest upside that still leaves the shares well below their 30‑day high.
The rally has been tempered by a 23% slide from the recent highs, leaving the stock trading at an EV/Cash‑EBITDA multiple of 21×—below its five‑year average—making the risk‑reward profile attractive for value‑oriented investors.
Network expansion is set to fuel growth: Jefferies projects a 26% jump in active sites to 2.61 lakh by FY29, a 6 million rise in subscribers, and a cumulative 25% tariff hike. These moves underpin a 11% CAGR in revenue and 25% in EBITDA over FY26‑29.
With high operating leverage, Jefferies estimates that every 10% tariff hike will lift cash EBITDA by 17%, driving a 38% jump in market cap. The bull case assumes a 25% tariff hike and a 22× EV/EBITDA valuation at the ₹29 target.
Coverage remains split: out of 22 analysts, 10 are ‘sell’, eight hold, and only four buy. Consensus price targets show no upside from the current level, and the shares are 10% off their 30‑day peak, trimming the 2026 advance to just 5%.