ADB Expects Crude Prices to Remain Elevated Through 2027

Crude oil prices are expected to remain elevated through 2027 due to prolonged disruptions from the Middle East crisis, with average prices forecast at $96 per barrel in 2026 and $80 in 2027, according to Albert Park, Chief Economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB). He cited sustained market tightness and elevated near-term futures as indicators of lasting pressure on global oil markets.

Park noted that spot and near-futures prices currently carry a premium due to immediate supply shortages, reflecting strong demand and geopolitical uncertainty. Future pricing curves now show higher levels further into 2025 than previously observed, reinforcing expectations of prolonged high prices.

For India, the ADB estimates the crisis will trim 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in the current fiscal year, lowering it to 6.3%, while significantly increasing inflation pressures. The bank had earlier projected growth at 6.9% for the current year and 7.3% for the next, with inflation forecast at 4.5%.

The ADB will release its next economic outlook update in October, which will include revised oil price and growth assumptions based on ongoing developments in West Asia.