Donald Trump signed the executive order on Friday, effectively neutralizing the immediate threat of a 100 per cent tariff hike on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude and natural gas. The move specifically shields buyers like India from fresh penalties starting October 18, yet it leaves the foundational machinery of the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 fully intact.
The strategy is one of tactical pause rather than permanent retreat. Trump invoked Section 115 of the legislation to waive duties under Sections 112 and 113, citing US national interests. This legal maneuver creates a fragile equilibrium; the waiver has no fixed expiry date, meaning the US administration can withdraw it at will. Existing sanctions imposed under other executive orders remain unaffected, keeping the geopolitical pressure valve open.
Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), warned that this relief is a stopgap, not a solution. "For India, the waiver buys time but offers no lasting certainty," Srivastava told PTI. He argued that India must protect its energy security on commercial terms and prepare for renewed US pressure, noting that temporary tariff relief is no basis for permanent trade concessions.
Why did Washington blink? GTRI points to a confluence of domestic and diplomatic pressures. On October 9, the US agreed to purchase Russian diesel to address domestic fuel shortages and elevated prices. Srivastava noted the hypocrisy paradox: "Punishing other countries for buying Russian energy while doing so itself would invite accusations of double standards." Additionally, Washington’s agreement not to raise tariffs on China until January 10 suggests that isolating India with new duties could complicate broader bilateral negotiations.
Market signals are already shifting. Russia’s share of India’s oil imports dropped from 51 per cent in July to 44 per cent in August as Indian refiners increased purchases from the US and the UAE. Despite the waiver, the US Trade Representative will continue monitoring Russian energy purchases, leaving Washington with the option to review the relief and potentially restore the 100 per cent duties if deemed necessary by future administrations or trade negotiations.