Gold surged 1.28% over the week, closing at $4,194.24 after slipping to $4,160 mid‑week—until a brief $4,200 spike on Monday was reversed.
The dollar index sits near an 18‑month high of 102.20, while the US 10‑year yield holds above 5%, both exerting downward pressure on bullion.
Bank of America notes that central banks, China and India, have slowed purchases, yet the market remains buoyed by record $31 billion inflow into global gold ETFs in Q3, pushing total holdings to 4,256 tonnes.
Vedika Narvekar of Anand Rathi Shares warns that without a clear inflation catalyst, gold may face profit‑taking as yields and the dollar stay resilient.
The next key data point is the US September CPI, released today, which could signal the Fed’s tightening trajectory. A dovish print may lift prices to $4,220‑4,310; a hawkish reading could drag them down to $4,070‑$4,000.
Looking ahead, market watchers will track the Fed meeting on Oct 27‑28, where officials such as Cleveland’s Hammack and Dallas’s Logan favour more than one hike—contrasting with Williams’ more restrained view.
If the CPI comes in softer or the Fed signals a pause, gold could rally further, but the current environment keeps upside capped until a clear dovish shift materializes.