Indian Oil shares slipped 0.5 % to ₹136.85 on the NSE as ICICI Securities issued a warning that Russian sanctions could squeeze earnings.
ICICI’s note projects the company’s EPS to drop to ₹2.1‑₹4.2 per share if a 25‑50 % disruption in Russian crude takes effect, with a replacement cost of $6 a barrel.
Bharat Petroleum, exposed 40 % to Russian crude, faces a potential EPS hit of ₹2.9‑₹5.9, while Hindustan Petroleum, with 10 % exposure, could see a ₹1‑₹1.9 decline.
The estimates assume the U.S. Treasury’s “Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act 2026” becomes active, allowing up to a 100 % tariff on buyers of Russian crude.
Shares of HPCL, BPCL and IOC are down 29 %, 18 % and 18 % respectively this year, adding pressure as investors assess the likelihood of tariff enforcement and the impact on refinery margins.
Looking ahead, the next earnings release on October 15 will be a key barometer; analysts will gauge whether government compensation or higher diesel/jet crack margins offset the cost shock. The sector’s resilience will hinge on the actual tariff activation and the extent of Russian crude displacement.