ITC Ltd. is bleeding value. The conglomerate’s stock, once a blue-chip staple, has shed more than half its value from the all-time high of roughly ₹500. As of Friday, October 9, the share price sits at ₹260.3 on the BSE. That number? It’s identical to where the stock traded back in 2017. A decade of stagnation, compressed into a single chart point.
The market isn't just punishing ITC for a bad quarter; it’s repricing the entire valuation model. Analysts tracking the stock have slashed their Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates for fiscal years 2027 and 2028 by 23% and 21%, respectively. This isn't a minor adjustment. It reflects a deep skepticism about the company's ability to drive growth across its diverse portfolio, from cigarettes to hotels to agri.
The valuation gap is stark. ITC currently trades at 17x its estimated FY2027 earnings and 15x for FY2028. Compare that to the stock's historical average multiple of over 20x. At ₹260.3, the stock offers a 6% dividend yield, which is arguably the only bright spot in an otherwise grim technical picture.
Broker sentiment is fractured, but largely cautious. CLSA and BNP Paribas maintain 'Accumulate' and 'Outperform' ratings with targets of ₹388 and ₹380, respectively. UBS and Jefferies are 'Buy' rated, though with lower targets of ₹350. Nomura sits at ₹340. On the bearish end, Axis Capital has a 'Reduce' rating with a target of just ₹295. The spread between the highest and lowest targets is nearly ₹100, signaling major uncertainty.
The immediate outlook remains fragile. ITC shares are trading 2.1% higher on Friday, but the stock is still down 28% year-to-date. Investors are watching closely for any signs of operational stabilization in the core FMCG and Hotels segments. Until EPS estimates stabilize, the 17x multiple is likely the floor, not the ceiling.