Since the Pahalgam attack, security forces in Jammu and Kashmir have neutralized 30 terrorists in 19 counter-terror operations, resulting in 10 fatalities among the security forces. According to the CNAWS J&K Terrorism Dataset, the distribution of violence shows that 20 terrorists have been eliminated in the valley, with 5 security force casualties, while 10 terrorists have been eliminated in Jammu division, with 5 fatalities among the security forces.

The shift in the security landscape is attributed to several factors, including the bolstering of the counter-terror grid in Jammu division, leadership losses in Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), and pressure on overground worker networks. The elimination of experienced commanders, such as JeM commander Ateeq-ur-Rehman, has affected the ability of terrorist outfits to plan and execute complex attacks.

The reduction in local recruitment in J&K has also contributed to the shift, with Indian Army Chief Gen Upendra Dwivedi stating that terror recruitment of locals has been reduced to almost zero. Additionally, strategic recalibration across the border, including possible shifts in geography, tactics, or organizational structure, may also be a factor.

The immediate outlook is that the security forces will continue to maintain pressure on terrorist networks, with the court and security agencies monitoring the situation closely. The Indian government is likely to review its security doctrine and strategies in response to the evolving threat environment, including the emergence of hybrid militancy and decentralized threat networks.