JPMorgan’s Rajiv Batra has set a firm target of 27,000 for the Nifty by year‑end, a level that sits comfortably above the current 10‑week outflow trend and the market’s existing 70‑basis‑point Fed hike pricing.
Batra warns that the market will stay wary until late October or early November, citing three key headwinds: further rate hikes from developed‑market central banks, a surge in Japanese bond yields, and the seasonal slowdown that precedes US midterm elections. He noted that oil prices fell over the weekend, adding to short‑term volatility.
The probability of the Nifty sliding to the 20,500 bear case has diminished, Batra said, as bond markets have already priced in a further 70 basis points of Fed hikes by March and a similar move from the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, RBI is expected to raise rates by 50–75 basis points, a stimulus that could lift private banks.
Batra also highlighted that mid‑cap and small‑cap stocks, growing 20–40% YoY, are outperforming the broader market, and that foreign ownership in large caps has fallen from 24% to 16%. He predicts that real‑asset sectors—technology hardware, materials, and industrials—will drive future upside, while IT services will shrink to 6–7% of the MSCI India index.
Looking ahead, Batra sees a post‑Fed‑rate‑cut window where private banks could benefit from both growth and value opportunities, with valuations hovering near two times price‑to‑book—an unprecedented low for India in over three decades.