Meesho Ltd. is now under scrutiny as Nomura launched coverage on Friday, slashing its price target to ₹167 and downgrading the stock to Reduce. The last close of ₹232 on Thursday implies a potential 28% downside, a sharp contrast to the 28% year‑to‑date advance the shares have seen.
Nomura’s note emphasizes a 23% compound annual growth rate in net merchandise value (NMV) for FY27‑FY30, driven by the platform’s asset‑light, AI‑powered model and improving free cash flow. In the brokerage’s view, Meesho’s valuation sits at a premium to peers like Eternal and Swiggy, even though those rivals boast higher quick‑commerce growth profiles.
The report flags two major headwinds: escalating competition from horizontal platforms and a potential overlap with Meesho’s own quick‑commerce ventures. These risks could erode the expected NMV momentum.
On the flip side, UBS has moved its price target up to ₹260 from ₹210 while keeping a Buy rating. The firm lifts FY29‑FY31 NMV estimates by 7‑18% and EBITDA estimates by 20‑40%, citing stronger growth and margin improvement.
Analyst coverage currently stands at 18 firms, with 10 recommending Buy, three Hold, and five Sell. Meesho’s shares, listed since December 10, 2025, fell 1.85% to ₹232 on Thursday, extending a 28% YTD gain.
Looking ahead, investors will watch next quarter’s earnings for any confirmation of the projected NMV trajectory and cash‑flow trends. The stock’s path will also hinge on its ability to navigate the competitive landscape and sustain its AI‑driven growth engine.