Bullion is bleeding out. After touching highs in the ₹160,000–162,000 region, gold has slid to roughly ₹148,300, knocking out the ₹150,000 psychological barrier. It’s a sharp reversal. The daily chart shows the recent recovery attempt has stalled, leaving the metal testing critical technical floors.
Manav Modi, Senior Analyst at Motilal Oswal, points to the Bollinger Bands for confirmation. The 20-day average sits at ₹152,291, and the lower band is at ₹149,258. Gold has dipped just below this lower band—a signal of heavy near-term selling pressure. But that same technical setup suggests the ₹147,500–149,000 range is the battleground. Hold that line, and you might see a bounce to ₹151,000. Lose it, and the slide accelerates.
The macro headwinds are brutal. Crude oil remains expensive because US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz are deadlocked. Higher oil prices keep inflation fears alive, which means the Federal Reserve isn’t done tightening. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack explicitly cited stronger growth and debt concerns, keeping the threat of additional hikes on the table.
Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of another rate hike in October. That drives up real yields, making non-yielding gold expensive to hold. The 2-year to 10-year Treasury yield spread is narrowing, signaling curve flattening. For this week, the drivers are clear: crude prices, Treasury yields, and Fed rhetoric. If gold breaks below ₹148,000, expect a dive towards ₹145,000, with deeper support only at ₹142,000–143,000.