Tamil Nadu's 234-member assembly has produced a fractured mandate, with TVK holding 108 seats, 10 short of the majority mark of 118. Vijay has staked his claim to form the government, with Congress extending formal support and informal discussions underway with AIADMK.

The Speaker's role is critical, as they will not vote in the first instance, unless there is a tie, reducing the effective voting strength of TVK to 106. If TVK reaches 118 MLAs and one becomes Speaker, the government's votes will be 117, just enough to survive a floor test.

However, the government's survival is fragile, with zero buffer and no room for rebellion or last-minute no-shows. Abstentions or walkouts can change the math, and the opposition needs to flip the scenario to defeat the government.

The anti-defection law protects against open rebellion, but cannot stop an MLA from being absent on the day of the vote. As of now, Vijay's party has reportedly managed to get the desired number of seats with the support of Congress and other parties, but the situation remains precarious.

The immediate next steps will be crucial, as the Governor's invitation to form the government and the floor test will determine the fate of Vijay's government. The court will not be involved in this process, but the Governor's decision will be closely watched.