On Friday, the MCX gold contract slipped to Rs 1,45,991 per 10 grams, a 10% slide from the Rs 1,64,773 peak in late August. The move marks a 23% fall from the January 29 record of $5,595 per ounce, echoing the 26% drop on the global market.
Profit taking kicked off the decline, but the real shock came when the U.S. and Iran escalated tensions in early June, sending Brent crude above $120 a barrel. The spike fed fears of a sustained inflationary spiral, prompting the Federal Reserve to lift rates for the first time since 2023 and push real yields to their highest in 24 years.
Praveen Singh, Head of Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, says the metal is holding at a $3,930–$4,000 support zone, but warns a breach could push prices toward $3,600–$3,750. He estimates a 25% chance of a fall to Rs 134,000 per 10 grams.
Maneesh Sharma points to the rupee’s recent rally to 96.30 against the dollar, saying a weaker currency could cushion a dip to around Rs 1,45,000 in futures.
Still, Indian import duties stay at 15%, keeping domestic prices high, and the upcoming wedding and festival season may absorb any shock.