Vedanta Aluminium shares opened 1.4% higher at ₹359 on Thursday, ahead of the earnings release that unveiled the company’s latest quarterly data. The stock's uptick came after the firm announced a 4.4% YoY revenue rise to ₹22,324 crore, yet net profit dipped 6% to ₹6,187 crore, missing the median analyst estimate of ₹6,300 crore.
The company’s EBITDA fell 1.8% year‑on‑year to ₹10,113 crore, trimming the margin to 45.3% from 48.1% a year earlier. Production kept pace, with aluminium output hitting a quarterly record of 649 kilotonnes (+5% YoY) and alumina output surging 37% to 895 kilotonnes, underscoring the firm’s scale advantage.
Motilal Oswal retained its Buy rating but lowered the target price to ₹480 from ₹500, citing a 34% upside from Wednesday’s close. The research note highlighted that Vedanta’s long‑term outlook remains intact, driven by higher volumes, backward integration and a growing share of value‑added products.
Looking ahead, management projects EBITDA to grow at a 22% CAGR between FY26 and FY28, supported by cost savings from integration initiatives that are expected to reduce hot‑metal costs to roughly $1,550 per tonne by FY27. The firm also plans to ramp up its third potline at Bharat Aluminium, targeting a 435‑kt capacity by March 2027.
Sector dynamics remain favourable, with domestic aluminium demand projected to grow ~40% through 2030, though additional supply from West Asia and Indonesia could pressure prices later in FY27. Investors will watch closely how the company balances cost pressures from planned plant shutdowns and carbon‑price hikes against its expansion plans.
In the coming weeks, Vedanta will announce its FY27 guidance and the board will decide on potential dividend adjustments. Market participants will gauge whether the company can sustain its margin compression while delivering on its production and cost‑saving targets.