PB Fintech shares slipped 36% to ₹1,154.7 on the BSE/NSE after HSBC downgraded the stock and cut its FY28 EPS estimate by 56%. The move hit the 52‑week low on Thursday, reversing a one‑day rally that had seen the stock climb 4.5% earlier.
HSBC’s note warned that the draft IRDAI distribution reforms, especially commission caps for insurers, would erode PB Fintech’s core earnings. The brokerage cut its price target from ₹2,100 to ₹1,150, the same level at which the stock listed five years ago, and trimmed FY29 EPS by 17%.
Motilal Oswal, while keeping a neutral stance, slashed its price target to ₹1,150 from ₹1,820 and forecast a 30% drop in core online insurance revenue for FY28. That would force a 46% decline in earnings estimates, pushing the P/E from 73× to 57× if the company slashes employee and ad spend by 20%.
Dolat Capital Markets also downgraded PB Fintech to "sell" and cut its target to ₹1,150. Across 25 analysts, 16 still buy, 5 hold and 4 sell. The consensus sees the stock underperforming until the final regulations are announced.
During the earnings call, management warned that the proposed commission caps could crush general‑insurance revenue and that hiring may slow as agents deem the new rates unattractive. They hinted at exploring in‑house underwriting to offset the impact.
Looking ahead, PB Fintech’s next earnings call is slated for October 10. The company’s guidance will hinge on the clarity of the new distribution framework; any delay in approval could prolong the current downside risk.