The WMO, citing data from 13 leading meteorological centres, projects sea‑surface temperatures in the central Pacific to climb to 3.7 °C above normal by year‑end, eclipsing the 2015‑16 record. This surge represents the warmest oceanic heat release observed, with anomaly 2.5 °C in August already surpassing the 1.6 °C in June.
Such a spike could lift global temperatures by roughly 0.5 °C, intensifying heatwaves, altering monsoon patterns, and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events across continents. Meteorologists warn that these changes will strain water supplies and exacerbate food insecurity.
El Nino recurs every 2–7 years, typically lasting 9–12 months, and the last event helped make 2023 the second‑hottest year on record, while 2024 reached a new all‑time high of 1.55 °C above pre‑industrial levels.
Saulo said the ocean, already the warmest recorded, is releasing stored heat, and that the near‑100 % chance of persistence through February 2027 signals a rare intensity that could set new baselines.
Displaced families in Central America report crop failures and wildlife deaths, while European forecasters warn of a prolonged heatwave that could see record temperatures in the Mediterranean.
Governments worldwide are urged to update disaster risk plans, and the WMO will monitor the event through February, with a comprehensive assessment slated for March 2027.