Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the Sunday results a "disaster" after his conservative party evaporated in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, securing just 5.5% of the vote. It is the worst performance for his party in a state election since 1949. The collapse stood in stark contrast to the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which exit polls on ARD placed at 37%, handing them first place in the northeastern state.
The centre-left Social Democrats trailed the far-right narrowly with 35.5%, but no coalition will form around the AfD. Mainstream parties continue to shun the group, ruling out any governing partnership despite their polling strength. Yet the AfD’s trajectory is undeniable. They topped the polls in Saxony-Anhalt in September, coming close to an absolute majority, and now repeat the feat in another eastern state.
Berlin’s elections offered a different, though still challenging, picture. The far-left Linke party led with 24.5%, while Merz’s conservatives managed 20%. The AfD gained ground in the capital, hitting 16%. These concurrent votes paint a fractured political landscape where the traditional centre is losing ground on both flanks.
Merz’s position remains precarious. His approval ratings are low, and his reform agenda is unpopular. The AfD, which advocates for deporting foreigners without residency rights and restoring energy ties with Russia, has transformed from a fringe eurosceptic movement into the country’s most popular party in just over a decade. They see state victories as stepping stones to the 2029 federal elections.
Merz has convened a party meeting for Sunday to discuss the path forward. Speculation that the bad result might force his resignation has not shaken his resolve to stay in office. For now, the battle shifts to whether his coalition can survive the political aftershock of this historic loss.