Standard Chartered says crude oil will trade at $98 per barrel in Q4 2026, a 5.5% jump from the session’s $93 average that saw Brent briefly cross $105 before easing to $103–$104.—
The forecast sits at the top of the $89–$100 band that banks have charted for the quarter: Morgan Stanley projects $95, UBS $95, Barclays $96, and Bank of America $95, while HSBC leans toward $90.—
Geopolitical pressures keep the price ceiling high. Fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran target 17 vessels and 1,220 million barrels of crude destined for Asian ports, and 12 attacks on LNG, LPG, and oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have added a risk premium that could push prices beyond $100.—
Market prices surged to $105 after President Trump’s comment that Washington would avoid conflict before the November mid‑term elections, but retreated to $103–$104 as traders weighed the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough.—
Looking ahead, Standard Chartered expects 2027 prices to average $84 per barrel, a 14% drop from the Q4 2026 forecast, while other banks project $80–$90 per barrel. The consensus points to a moderation as supply risks ease and shipping through the Gulf of Mexico stabilizes.