Max Healthcare's latest filing shows a steep contraction in EBITDA, reflecting the looming 30% cap on oncology drug mark‑ups.
The National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority reports that oncology drugs normally carry a 170% mark‑up, a figure that would be slashed to 30% under the new rule.
Kunal Dhamesha, analyst at Macquarie Capital, estimates the cap could trim Max Healthcare's EBITDA by 15‑19% and Apollo Hospitals' by 8‑9% if patients are not passed on costs.
The Supreme Court is set to hear the case on Oct 12, and its ruling could set a precedent for broader drug pricing interventions.
If enforcement of the Uniform Code for Pharmaceutical Marketing Practices tightens, larger drugmakers such as Sun Pharma and Torrent could gain market share, Dhamesha suggests.
Analysts caution that hospital valuations, already high relative to peers, may compress if the cap takes effect, and investors should watch for any adjustments in earnings guidance in the next quarterly report.