Global food commodity prices slipped 1.2% in October as cheaper wheat, maize, dairy, and meat outweighed a sharp rally in sugar.
The benchmark Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index averaged 133.9 points in October 2026, shedding 1.6 points from September. Even with the monthly pullback, the index sits 5.9% above its level from the same month last year. But it remains 16.4% below the all-time peak reached in March 2022 following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The pressure came from buyers stepping back.
The FAO Cereal Price Index plunged 4.5% across the month, halting a four-month surge in wheat quotations. An improving production outlook in Argentina combined with sluggish international buying to drag export prices down. Expectations of looser export restrictions out of Black Sea ports added further downward pressure on wheat, though continuing regional shipping bottlenecks kept the drop within bounds. Maize followed suit, retreating from a three-year peak set in September as American combines rolled through fields and South American exporters readied fresh shipments. Rice moved the other way. The FAO All Rice Price Index rose 1.6% as torrential rains and harvesting snarls tightened supplies across major Asian exporters.
Sugar broke sharply away from the broader basket, leaping 6.6% from September to touch its highest level since December 2024. The sweetener now trades 28.8% above its level at this time last year. Heavy rains hammered Brazil's Centre-South belt, disrupting cane cutting and stalling mills across the world’s primary export basin. Looming yield shortfalls in India, Thailand, and the European Union for the 2026/27 season compounded market anxieties, driving up futures contracts.
| Commodity Index Category | Month-on-Month Change (%) | Primary Market Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Cereal Price Index | -4.5% | Argentina crop expansion, US harvest pressure |
| Dairy Price Index | -1.1% | Ample exportable butter and cheese stocks |
| Meat Price Index | -1.2% | Declines in pig, ovine, and bovine quotations |
| Sugar Price Index | +6.6% | Brazil rain disruptions, India output risks |
| Vegetable Oil Index | +0.3% | Firm soybean and sunflower oil quotations |
Livestock and dairy desks mirrored the grain slump. The Dairy Price Index dipped 1.1%, pulled down by sliding butter and cheese prices that overwhelmed slight gains in milk powder. Meat prices slipped 1.2%, with pork, lamb, and beef all recording soft buyer interest, while poultry prices held flat. Vegetable oils edged up 0.3% as gains in soybean and sunflower oils blunted cheaper rapeseed supplies.
The agency now forecasts global cereal production to touch 2,999 million tonnes in 2026—the second-largest haul on record, trailing only the record output logged in 2025. Yet international trade will shrink. World cereal trade is projected to contract 3.3% to 507.7 million tonnes over the 2026/27 marketing year, led by an 8.6% drop in cross-border wheat shipments as consuming nations rely on local stockpiles.