The postpaid tariff hike by Bharti Airtel is a smokescreen. Piyush Pandey, Senior Vice President at Centrum India, argues the real money is in the prepaid segment, which he expects to see a 10-12% price jump within the next three to five months. This shift is critical because prepaid subscribers generate the bulk of operator revenue, making it the true lever for Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) expansion.
Airtel’s current move only nudges its overall revenue up by about 1% sequentially, a minor bump given that postpaid accounts for just 10-12% of its wireless revenue. But the market is watching the ripple effects. Pandey anticipates rival operators will follow suit, with Vodafone Idea potentially seeing a higher impact since postpaid makes up 12-13% of its mix, compared to a smaller share for Reliance Jio.
The conversation has shifted to the massive Jio Platforms IPO. Centrum values the entity at approximately ₹12 lakh crore, suggesting the public issue might be priced at a modest discount to that figure. Pandey believes this listing could trigger a broader re-rating of Indian telecom stocks, provided the valuation clears the market’s expectations and investor response remains positive.
For investors, the coming months are about watching the prepaid price tags. If the 10-12% hike materializes as predicted, it validates the structural growth thesis for the sector. The Jio IPO will serve as the litmus test for whether this valuation reset sticks across the board.