Islamabad spent PKR 3 trillion on its military in the latest federal budget, a figure that dwarfs the PKR 1 trillion allocated for federal development.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb defended the 18% increase in defence outlays, citing regional uncertainty and stating the goal was to make the country “invincible.” The logic follows a clear trajectory: the government seeks to leverage military projection to secure a larger geopolitical role, specifically through the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed in August with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
But the budget numbers tell a stark story of trade-offs. While defence spending surged, the allocation for infrastructure and public works fell sharply. The total budget stands at PKR 18.77 trillion, with a targeted fiscal deficit of PKR 5.23 trillion, or 3.6% of GDP. This fiscal posture is delicate; the country remains under a $7 billion IMF program, meaning any slippage in economic targets could trigger further austerity measures that hit ordinary citizens before they reach the border.
The geopolitical stakes are high because the Mecca Pact is not just diplomatic posturing. It is a collective defence arrangement where an attack on one is treated as an attack on all. Yet, as Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure intensify, Islamabad has already tested the limits of this commitment. In September, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Sajjad Haider Khan clarified that no military response was discussed under the pact for recent Houthi strikes, using the careful phrase that action would come “when the time comes.”
Turkey, with its NATO second-largest army, has signaled readiness to provide technical military assistance to Riyadh. Pakistan, however, has pledged support without specifying the precise conditions for deploying combat forces. This ambiguity reflects a hard truth: Pakistan cannot afford to be the Muslim world’s security guard if it cannot keep its own lights on. The next budget review, or a significant escalation in the Red Sea, will determine if the Mecca Pact is a shield or a paper promise.