The Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago warned that the current Super El Nino will push global land temperatures 1.2 °C above normal, creating 44 % more days with temperatures exceeding 40 °C. The analysis projects 239,000 additional heat‑related deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027, a spike that dwarfs the 170,000 deaths recorded in a normal year.
India tops the list of nations threatened by the heat surge, with 15,800 deaths expected over the same six‑month window. Of those, 7,400 are projected to occur during the peak window of December 2026 through February 2027, when temperatures will crest in the most populous states; the death toll is expected to peak in November, dip briefly in December, and climb again in February. The estimates carry a margin of error of roughly 1,600 deaths, underscoring uncertainty in local microclimates.
Nigeria is projected to suffer the greatest loss of life at 31,400, followed by Indonesia at 19,300 and Sudan at 17,500. Brazil’s forecast stands at 13,300 deaths, while the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Niger each face around 10,000 fatalities. Lower‑income nations such as Chad, the Philippines and South Sudan are not immune, with 7,900, 6,500 and 5,600 deaths, respectively.
The lab recommends a suite of interventions: early heat warnings, the establishment of cooling centres, widespread hydration stations and strengthened health‑system readiness. It also calls for protective measures for outdoor workers, whose exposure is most acute. With a 100 % probability of the El Nino persisting through February 2027, Indian health authorities are expected to roll out a national heat‑action plan ahead of the predicted November peak.