The rupee opened at 96.20 on Monday, slipped slightly to 96.26 by the close, and held that level as oil prices stayed above $100 per barrel.—A head‑to‑head clash between a steady dollar and a resilient rupee kept the currency side‑by‑side.
RBI stepped in with spot‑market interventions that pushed the rate back above the psychologically critical 96 mark, a move confirmed by forex traders on the floor. The central bank’s actions are reflected in the weekly drop of its FX reserves: $18.34 billion to $747.56 billion, the lowest in over two months.
Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth ₹9.48 crore net on Thursday, a figure that adds pressure to the rupee and signals a broader sell‑off in domestic markets. Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex gained 413 points to 72,315 and the NSE Nifty rose 131.55 points to 22,554.20, a mixed picture for equity sentiment.
Analysts at Kotak Securities note that the dollar index sits at 102.47, up 0.54 percent, while Brent crude futures trade 0.89 percent lower at $101.34. The market is now sizing up the upcoming RBI policy meeting, where a 25‑basis‑point hike to 5.50 percent is widely priced in.
Looking ahead, the rupee is likely to stay within a 95.50–96.50 band as oil remains above $100 and US yields hold at multi‑year highs. If the RBI follows through on the hike, the rupee could rally briefly before settling into a new equilibrium. Investors will keep an eye on the Fed minutes and any Saudi‑related supply shocks that could push oil higher again.