UBS has kept its ‘Buy’ call on HDFC Bank and set a ₹1,000 price target, implying a 36.8% upside from the Friday close of ₹731.20. The stock climbed 2.55% to close at that level, while the year‑to‑date slide of roughly 26% lingers.
The brokerage cites leadership uncertainty as a key drag. RBI has been asked to review the CEO shortlist, and UBS believes that resolution could trigger a re‑rating. The current valuation already prices in a portion of that risk.
Branch network growth is another catalyst UBS highlights. Forty‑two percent of HDFC Bank’s branches opened in the past four years, compared with 5–30% for peers. As those branches mature, the bank expects deposit mobilisation to accelerate.
Loan growth rebounded to 15.6% in Q1 FY27, and UBS projects a steady 15% CAGR through FY29. Net interest margins should rise to 3.5% as retail loan share expands, while ROA is forecast at 1.9% in FY27 and FY28.
Risk‑reward sits at 1.4× the estimated FY28 price‑to‑book. Of the 49 analysts tracked, 47 hold a ‘Buy’ and only two a ‘Hold’. The bank’s forward guidance remains muted, but UBS’s upbeat outlook suggests momentum could pick up once leadership stabilises.