Finance Ministry said India’s GDP will grow 7.35% in the July‑September quarter of the 2026‑27 fiscal year.
The Reserve Bank of India, in its latest quarterly bulletin, projected a 7.1% expansion for the entire fiscal year, while global agencies such as the World Bank and IMF estimate growth between 6.9% and 7.1%. The first‑quarter official estimate had been 7.8%, a slight slowdown that the ministry notes is still above the 6% threshold of a healthy economy.
Domestic demand, investment, and structural reforms are cited as the primary engines behind the forecast, according to Finance Ministry spokesperson Arundhati Bhattacharya. She added that “healthy credit growth and recent trade agreements are expected to provide additional support to consumption, investment and exports.”
The industrial outlook remains buoyant, with firms reporting firm production, strengthening order flows, and improved manufacturing sentiment; industrial credit volumes are also on an upward trend. However, the ministry warns that volatility in energy prices, supply‑chain bottlenecks, and geopolitical developments—particularly in West Asia—continue to pose risks to manufacturing costs and investment decisions.
Trade analysts noted that, despite the West Asian crisis, merchandise export growth remained robust and the services surplus steadied the trade balance. Strong capital inflows, especially from banking capital, helped finance a widening current‑account deficit during April‑August FY 27, said Dr. Ramesh Kumar, head of the International Trade Division.
A textile shop owner in Jaipur, who received a new line of credit, said the “steady credit flow keeps the shop running even when oil prices spike.”
The Ministry will convene a ministerial meeting on 15 October to assess the effectiveness of policy measures in sustaining industrial momentum and to decide on any adjustments to the industrial policy framework.