Tata Steel Europe reported a 10–13% jump in Q2 EBITDA, driven by a 15–25% lift in steel volumes after last quarter’s maintenance shutdowns. The rise comes as the company’s margins face headwinds from a ₹500–₹1,300 drop in steel realisations and a ₹3,500 decline in long‑steel prices.
Jindal Steel is expected to see the sharpest EBITDA contraction, while JSW Steel’s resilience is attributed to better cost control. Across the sector, EBITDA per tonne is projected to fall ₹600–₹2,200 sequentially, a reflection of higher coking‑coal costs that could climb $10–$15 per tonne.
Non‑ferrous metals present a mixed picture: Hindalco India’s EBITDA is likely to shrink 8% due to lower aluminium prices, and Vedanta Aluminium’s margin could fall 4%. In contrast, Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta Zinc are forecasted to see EBITDA rises of 5% and 7% respectively, buoyed by a 4–5% lift in zinc prices.
Pinakin Parekh, Director and Analyst at HSBC Securities, remains bullish on aluminium, citing a forecast of $3,400–$3,500 per tonne next year. He notes that supply disruptions in the Middle East have tightened the market, but new capacity entering next year should moderate the outlook, keeping demand growth ahead of supply.
Looking ahead, Tata Steel Europe will release its Q3 guidance on October 12, with analysts anticipating stable margins as input costs rise. The broader steel sector is expected to navigate a challenging pricing environment while leveraging increased volumes to sustain profitability.