The ICICI Bank analysis, released on Tuesday, flagged a 90.9% probability for Democrats to capture the House and a 64% chance in the Senate, setting the stage for a deep partisan divide in Washington.
Newt Gingrich, former House Speaker, said the outcome would likely trigger fresh tariff reviews, but noted the President still holds veto power. For the family of a Mumbai textile entrepreneur, the uncertainty means tighter margins as they wait for policy clarity.
The study also found that shifts in political control will barely affect AI and data‑center investment, as the contested swing states represent only 15% of U.S. capacity.
Both parties are expected to convene bipartisan committees next week to draft tariff revision bills, while the Indian Ministry of Commerce will monitor the proceedings closely.