The Biden administration is weighing a 90‑day limit on diesel exports that would start in early October and run through at least December, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis. The move could bring domestic diesel prices down by roughly $0.25 per gallon each week as more fuel stays in the country.
Already, U.S. diesel exports have jumped from 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025 to about 1.6 million barrels per day recently, while the average retail diesel price has climbed to $6.5 a gallon. The export curtailment would leave more diesel in U.S. inventories, pushing up local supply and easing price pressure—at least until storage capacity is reached.
Goldman Sachs estimates that if the ban holds, U.S. diesel inventories could max out in nine to ten weeks. Once storage tightens, lower diesel prices would erode refinery margins, prompting producers to cut output. That cut would shrink gasoline and jet fuel supplies, pushing U.S. gasoline prices up by roughly $0.30 a gallon for each additional week the ban stays in place.
Europe would feel the knock‑on effect too. Analysts project that every week of the U.S. export curfew could lift European wholesale diesel prices by about $3 a barrel, or just under 2%. Strategic reserve releases in the EU could blunt the rise by roughly half.
The policy review is scheduled for a White House briefing next week, and the final decision will hinge on congressional approval. Refiners, fuel distributors, and truck operators are already bracing for the price swings, with some small‑business owners warning that higher gasoline costs could erode margins.