Iron ore futures on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.8% to $89.75/ton, the weakest level recorded since September 2024. The dip follows a 15% decline year‑to‑date, reflecting a sharp contraction in global demand.
The 15% slump this year eclipses the 12% drop seen in Q3, leaving traders wary of a sustained reversal. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, iron ore futures slipped 0.3% to $90.15/ton, while Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a 0.5% retreat in steel products.
China’s crude steel output for the first eight months of 2026 stands at 115 million tonnes, the lowest for the period since 2018, underscoring the impact of the property slump on domestic demand. The slowdown has tightened the supply‑demand balance for iron ore.
On the supply front, new mines such as Guinea’s Simandou continue to come online, adding an extra 5 million tonnes of ore to the global pool. This glut keeps downward pressure on prices, despite weak demand from China.
Chaos Ternary Futures Co. noted in a research note that "steel mills are still operating at thin margins, leaving room for further cuts in hot‑metal production." The firm projects a range‑bound market with a short‑term downside bias until clearer demand signals emerge.
Looking ahead, analysts expect Q4 steel demand to rise modestly as infrastructure projects resume, potentially supporting a gradual price rebound. Investors will keep a close eye on the upcoming Q4 steel output report slated for release on November 15.