Gold slid to a seven‑week low of $4,111 an ounce on 4 October 2026, marking a 12% drop from its August peak. The 30‑year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2002, while the 10‑year hovered near a 2007 peak, tightening borrowing costs and pressuring the metal.
Vedika Narvekar, Anand Rathi’s commodities‑currency research lead, said the market bias stays cautious, pointing to elevated yields, a firmer dollar and hawkish Fed stances as the main drag. Yet she noted that gold‑ETF holdings have climbed toward a multi‑year high, indicating investors still see a safe‑haven case.
The week ahead will hinge on the U.S. PCE inflation data due today and the jobs report on Friday, both of which could sway Fed policy. One Federal Reserve official has suggested only one more hike this year might suffice, pulling October hike odds down to about 50% from 70% and giving gold a brief breathing space.
Meanwhile, China’s Golden Week holiday, starting 1 October, is expected to trigger the country’s largest gold‑buying season, potentially supporting prices. If inflation data soften, yields could fall and push gold toward a $4,000 test; if not, the metal may remain stuck near the low until further policy signals.