Thomas DiNanno, the US under secretary of State, declared in a post on X that Russia’s Cosmos 2612 military satellite was “intentionally maneuvering dangerously close to a commercial satellite” in mid-October. He labeled the activity “consistent with on-orbit weapons operations,” a stark accusation that bypasses diplomatic niceties. The target, X36, is run by Finnish firm ICEYE and feeds radar imagery to Western militaries, including Ukraine's defense network.
Greg Gillinger, a senior space analyst at Integrity ISR, called the encounter the most aggressive posture he has witnessed from Moscow. “This is the most aggressive posture I’ve seen Russia take in terms of threatening satellites from another nation,” he told Reuters. Gillinger, a former US Air Force intelligence officer, argued the proximity—estimated by some analysts at just a few hundred meters—was unnecessary for routine intelligence gathering. It looked, he said, like a kinetic attack rehearsal.
The incident is part of a months-long pattern. In April, Russia launched six military satellites; four moved close to X36 in May. ICEYE chief executive Rafal Modrzewski confirmed in September that the company repositioned X36, which only triggered further Russian maneuvers. Now, the threat has shifted. Two other Russian satellites, tracked by COMSPOC, are aligning their orbital paths with X37, another ICEYE asset registered in the US. DiNanno’s warning suggests Moscow is testing the limits of what it can do before it actually does it.
Germany’s Major General Michael Traut cautioned that capability does not equal intent, noting that orbital data alone cannot confirm an attack is imminent. Yet the strategic calculus is shifting. X36 remains operational, according to Ann Stevens, head of ICEYE’s US operations, who insisted the network is resilient. But as two Russian craft close in on X37, the margin for error in low Earth orbit vanishes. The next move from Moscow will likely determine whether this remains a tense standoff or escalates into the first deliberate space-based kinetic strike against Western infrastructure.