Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange edged up 0.24% to ₹1.48 lakh per 10‑gram, with silver following suit at a 0.43% gain, trading at ₹2.12 lakh per kilogram – data pulled from Reuters.
Spot prices overseas mirrored the trend, with gold up 0.3% to $4,175.60 an ounce and silver rising 0.9% to $57.54 an ounce. The lift came as oil prices fell, dampening inflation fears that could otherwise push rates higher.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.com, warned that while lower energy costs ease immediate inflation concerns, the Fed’s stance on rates remains the “single biggest risk factor” for bullion. He added that any uptick in policy rates would likely reverse the current upside.
Darshan Desai, CEO of Aspect Bullion & Refinery, noted that domestic buyers stay price‑conscious at elevated levels, but festive and wedding demand could still buoy the market. He stressed that currency swings, US inflation data and rate expectations will continue to dominate price swings.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 92% probability of a December rate hike, a figure that traders are pricing into higher yields and a potentially weaker dollar. This backdrop suggests that the bull market may be vulnerable to any tightening signals from the Fed.
For investors, the takeaway is clear: monitor the Fed’s meeting agenda, keep an eye on dollar‑to‑rupee movements, and consider the seasonal surge when planning large bullion purchases. The next week could see volatility as policy expectations clash with supply‑side support.