The rupee slipped to 96.08 after peaking at 96.13, keeping the 97‑threshold out of reach amid a surge in Brent to $101 and WTI at $95, while U.S. 10‑year yields edged past 5.20%—
RBI's foreign‑exchange reserves have swelled to ₹786 billion, up from ₹670 billion, thanks to a $133 billion inflow from the FCNR deposit scheme—an extra cushion that the bank will likely deploy to defend the 97‑level—
India imports 85–86% of its crude from Russia, Venezuela and West Asia, meaning higher energy costs feed into the 4.82% CPI that sits neatly inside the RBI’s 4% ± 2% tolerance band, keeping inflation under control—
The central bank is poised for a 25‑basis‑point hike in October—probability 60–70%—to lift policy to 5.5%, while a 50‑basis‑point move is ruled out as inflation remains tame—
With the dollar firming and oil prices high, traders eye a trading band of 95.50 to 96.50; a moderate RBI tightening should anchor the rupee in that corridor until the next policy meeting.