The rupee edged higher to 94.80 against the dollar on Monday, extending a three‑day rally that began with a 94.89 close on Friday. RBI’s stepped‑up market interventions, buying foreign currency to dampen volatility, helped sustain the gain.
But the up‑turn is fragile. Brent crude, which had spiked to $110 per barrel earlier this month, traded at $107.79 in futures, down 1.88%. MD Amit Pabari warned that the currency would stay in the 94.80–94.70 band unless oil prices fall below $100 a barrel.
The dollar index slipped to 101.83, while the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty fell 470.5 and 147.1 points respectively. Foreign Institutional Investors net bought ₹1,165.92 crore of shares, but India's foreign‑exchange reserves dropped to $726.027bn, a decline of $8.578bn from the prior week.
With oil price uncertainty and a tightening U.S. Treasury yield curve, the RBI may intervene again if the rupee slides under 94.80. Analysts say a sustained break below that level could trigger a sharper pullback toward 94.00 over the coming weeks.