The 2026 midterm election will decide control of 470 seats in Congress and 36 governorships, a power shift that could constrain President Donald Trump’s agenda.
In the House, Republicans currently hold a 218‑214 edge; Democrats must net three seats to reach the 218 threshold needed for a majority, a margin that could be swayed by a single vacancy.
The Senate will see 35 seats up for grabs, including two special elections in Florida and Ohio; the GOP holds a 53‑47 advantage, and Democrats must flip four seats to achieve a 51‑seat majority.
Polling from PBS News/NPR/Marist shows a 53‑41 Republican advantage among registered voters, while Trump’s approval rating sits between 32‑41 percent across major surveys, indicating limited coattail effect.
AdImpact forecasts $11.6 billion to $12.5 billion for the 2025‑26 cycle, dwarfing the $8.9 billion record in 2022, while California’s governor primary alone will cost $330 million, the most expensive state race ever.