JPMorgan’s note projected a ₹17,000 crore UPI merchant discount‑rate (MDR) revenue pool for FY27, potentially boosting Paytm’s EBITDA by 35‑54% and EPS by a similar margin.
The brokerage expects 20‑30% of that pool to flow to acquiring banks, payment aggregators, and third‑party application providers, placing Paytm in a favorable dual‑leg position as both a TPAP and an acquiring PA.
Shares of Paytm and Pine Labs opened 1% higher on the NSE, reflecting market optimism, while Pine Labs remains on a Neutral stance with its price target lifted to ₹190 and a P/E multiple raised to 42 from 40.
Analysts note that the uplift translates to a 9‑28% EBITDA boost for Pine Labs over FY27‑29, mirroring the broader fintech sector’s exposure to the expanding UPI ecosystem.
Paytm is slated to report FY27 results in Q1 2025, with management signalling stronger cash flow projections as UPI transactions surge, potentially tightening the company’s valuation band.